What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025 and 2026 seasons in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: St. Louis CITY SC are favoured (57% win probability vs 19% for Toronto FC, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is St. Louis CITY SC 1-1 Toronto FC (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.75.
How does Bawler predict St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives St. Louis CITY SC 57%, the draw 24% and Toronto FC 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.80 and away expected goals 0.95.
Over or under 2.5 goals in St. Louis CITY SC vs Toronto FC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.75. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).