What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025 and 2026 seasons in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler's model rates this match: Philadelphia Union are favoured (58% win probability vs 20% for Sporting Kansas City, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Philadelphia Union (9.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.30.
How does Bawler predict Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Sporting Kansas City 20%, the draw 22% and Philadelphia Union 58%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.18 and away expected goals 2.12.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.30. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).