FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 0–2 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 60%, draw at 23%, Sporting Kansas City at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Houston Dynamo FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
60%
Draw
23%
City win
18%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.99 – 1.00
Total 2.99
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Houston's attacking edge—nearly a full expected-goal advantage at 1.99 to Kansas City's 1.00—underpins the 1X forecast at 82%, as the Dynamo are favored to either win or draw at home."