FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland TimbersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Portland Timbers or draw at 67%. Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 33%, the draw at 24% and Portland Timbers at 43%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting Kansas City win
33%
Draw
24%
Result
Portland Timbers win
43%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.8
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.