FT · USA: MLS · Friday, 02 October 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Seattle Sounders FC to win at 65%. Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 65%, the draw at 20% and Sporting Kansas City at 15%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Seattle Sounders FC win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Sporting Kansas City win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Seattle Sounders FC to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Seattle's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.28 expected-goals advantage, with Jordan Morris's wing play driving 24% of their attacking output against Kansas City's 1.03 xG ceiling."