Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle prediction — Eredivisie · Fri 4 Sept · 19:00 UK

Eredivisie · Fri 4 Sept · 19:00 UK
Sparta Rotterdam 57Draw 22PEC Zwolle 20
The call
57%
Sparta Rotterdam to win
3.2
Goals expected
14d 10hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Sparta Rotterdam or draw80%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
BTTS59%
Sparta Rotterdam win to nil28%
PEC Zwolle or draw43%
Under 3.5 goals61%
Correct score 2–110%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L D L L L W
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.9 / match
Head-to-head, last 5SPA 0 · D 2 · PEC 3
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Mar 2026Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 PEC Zwolle
Nov 2025PEC Zwolle 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam
Mar 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 PEC Zwolle
Nov 2024PEC Zwolle 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam
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Common questions

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Bawler's model rates this match: Sparta Rotterdam are favoured (57% win probability vs 20% for PEC Zwolle, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle (10.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.18.

How does Bawler predict Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Sparta Rotterdam 57%, the draw 22% and PEC Zwolle 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.04 and away expected goals 1.14.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.18. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

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All fixtures & results →Sparta Rotterdam form →PEC Zwolle form →