Pre-match, Bawler had Heerenveen at 59%, draw at 22%, PEC Zwolle at 19%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Heerenveen to win.
Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.