FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 13 September 2026
PEC Zwolle 0–7 Feyenoord RotterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had PEC Zwolle at 18%, draw at 22%, Feyenoord Rotterdam at 60%. The match ended 0-7 — confirming the model's lean toward Feyenoord Rotterdam.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Zwolle win
18%
Draw
22%
Rotterdam win
60%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.10 – 2.10
Total 3.20
Actual
0 – 7
Total 7 (+3.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 83% because Feyenoord's 2.10 xG advantage and Santiago Giménez's attacking threat create a decisive 1.00 expected-goal gap against PEC Zwolle's 1.10."