What we expect
In plain English
Go Ahead Eagles are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Go Ahead Eagles or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Bawler's model rates this match: Go Ahead Eagles are favoured (47% win probability vs 29% for Sparta Rotterdam, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam (10.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.33.
How does Bawler predict Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Go Ahead Eagles 47%, the draw 24% and Sparta Rotterdam 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.88 and away expected goals 1.45.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.33. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).