PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026

1–3

NEC Nijmegen win

NEC Nijmegen

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had PEC Zwolle at 24%, draw at 23%, NEC Nijmegen at 53%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward NEC Nijmegen.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Zwolle win

24%

Draw

23%

Nijmegen win

53%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.31 – 2.00

Total 3.31

Actual

1 – 3

Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 84%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Away Win

Pre-match: 53%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 36%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, driven by NEC's 2.00 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 3.31 goals across both sides."

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