What we expect
In plain English
Sheffield United are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost five of their last six, and Lincoln City have not beaten them in their last three meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Sheffield United or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Sheffield United vs Lincoln City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Sheffield United are favoured (42% win probability vs 31% for Lincoln City, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Sheffield United vs Lincoln City?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Sheffield United 1-1 Lincoln City (12.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.71.
How does Bawler predict Sheffield United vs Lincoln City?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Sheffield United 42%, the draw 27% and Lincoln City 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sheffield United vs Lincoln City?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.47 and away expected goals 1.24.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sheffield United vs Lincoln City?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.71. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).