FT · England: Championship · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Portsmouth 3–2 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Portsmouth or draw at 65%. Bawler had Portsmouth at 38%, the draw at 27% and Sheffield United at 35%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
38%
Result
Draw
27%
Sheffield United win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.