FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Sheffield United 1–1 Derby CountyMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sheffield United or draw at 74%. Bawler had Sheffield United at 49%, the draw at 25% and Derby County at 26%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sheffield United win
49%
Draw
25%
Result
Derby County win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals looks highly probable at 78%, with Sheffield United's 0.53 expected-goals advantage suggesting they'll create enough chances to breach Derby's defence in a low-stakes home fixture."