FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Preston North End 0–1 Lincoln CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Preston North End at 37%, draw at 27%, Lincoln City at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Preston North End to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
End win
37%
Draw
27%
City win
36%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.41
Total 2.83
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% likelihood as both sides generate nearly identical expected goal totals—Preston 1.42, Lincoln 1.41—pointing to an open, competitive fixture."