FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Sheffield United 0–1 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sheffield United at 33%, draw at 27%, Wolverhampton Wanderers at 39%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Wolverhampton Wanderers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
33%
Draw
27%
Wanderers win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.43
Total 2.73
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 76% because combined xG reaches 2.73, with Wolverhampton's Adam Armstrong leading the striker load at 21% of team output."