FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Millwall 2–2 Lincoln CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Millwall or draw at 78%. Bawler had Millwall at 53%, the draw at 25% and Lincoln City at 22%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
53%
Draw
25%
Result
Lincoln City win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.