FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Bristol City 0–1 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bristol City or draw at 64%. Bawler had Bristol City at 38%, the draw at 26% and Sheffield United at 36%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bristol City win
38%
Draw
26%
Sheffield United win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.