Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg prediction — Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept · 16:30 UK

Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept · 16:30 UK
Schalke 04 46Draw 25SV Elversberg 29
The call
71%
Schalke 04 or draw
3.1
Goals expected
14d 06hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Schalke 04 to score83%
Over 1.5 goals82%
SV Elversberg to score75%
Under 3.5 goals62%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5SCH 3 · D 1 · ELV 1
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

Apr 2026Elversberg 1–2 Schalke 04
Nov 2025Schalke 04 1–0 Elversberg
May 2025Schalke 04 1–2 Elversberg
Dec 2024Elversberg 1–4 Schalke 04
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Common questions

Who will win Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?

Bawler's model rates this match: Schalke 04 are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for SV Elversberg, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Schalke 04 1-1 SV Elversberg (11.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.13.

How does Bawler predict Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Schalke 04 46%, the draw 25% and SV Elversberg 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?

BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.76 and away expected goals 1.38.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.13. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Bundesliga table →
All fixtures & results →Schalke 04 form →SV Elversberg form →