FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Schalke 04 0–0 Bayern MunichMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Schalke 04 at 12%, draw at 15%, Bayern Munich at 73%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Bayern Munich to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
04 win
12%
Draw
15%
Actual ✓
Munich win
73%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.12 – 2.87
Total 3.99
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-4.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 4.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Bayern Munich's 3.02 expected goals versus Schalke's 1.12—a 1.90 xG advantage—underpins the model's high-confidence Away Win forecast at 75%."