FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Schalke 04 0–1 MainzMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Mainz or draw at 68%. Bawler had Schalke 04 at 32%, the draw at 26% and Mainz at 42%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Schalke 04 win
32%
Draw
26%
Mainz win
42%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.