FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
SV Elversberg 4–3 FC AugsburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SV Elversberg or draw at 72%. Bawler had SV Elversberg at 48%, the draw at 23% and FC Augsburg at 28%. The match finished 4–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
SV Elversberg win
48%
Result
Draw
23%
FC Augsburg win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.4
Total 3.4
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+3.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.6 – 3.6
From the match itself
The match produced 3.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
SV Elversberg or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.