FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 SV ElversbergMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was 1. FC Union Berlin or draw at 68%. Bawler had 1. FC Union Berlin at 43%, the draw at 24% and SV Elversberg at 32%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
1. FC Union Berlin win
43%
Result
Draw
24%
SV Elversberg win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.5
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.