FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
SV ELVERSBERG 3–2 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bayer Leverkusen or draw at 76%. Bawler had SV ELVERSBERG at 25%, the draw at 23% and Bayer Leverkusen at 52%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
SV ELVERSBERG win
25%
Result
Draw
23%
Bayer Leverkusen win
52%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.0
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Leverkusen's Champions League push (5th, 5 games left) meets a side generating just 1.29 xG at home, setting up Over 1.5 Goals at 84% as the model's clearest call."