FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
SV ELVERSBERG 3–2 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had SV ELVERSBERG at 25%, draw at 23%, Bayer Leverkusen at 52%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-2. The model's headline call was Bayer Leverkusen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
ELVERSBERG win
25%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Leverkusen win
52%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.29 – 1.95
Total 3.24
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Leverkusen's Champions League push (5th, 5 games left) meets a side generating just 1.29 xG at home, setting up Over 1.5 Goals at 84% as the model's clearest call."