FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 11 September 2026
1. FC Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke 04Match recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had 1. FC Union Berlin at 55%, draw at 24%, Schalke 04 at 22%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was 1. FC Union Berlin to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Berlin win
55%
Draw
24%
04 win
22%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.92 – 1.15
Total 3.07
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Union Berlin's xG advantage of 0.77 and 55% win probability anchor a 1X forecast at 78%, with the hosts' superior shot quality expected to prevent a Schalke upset at home."