FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Sunday, 30 August 2026
FC Augsburg 3–0 Schalke 04Match recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Augsburg at 53%, draw at 23%, Schalke 04 at 24%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Augsburg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Augsburg win
53%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
04 win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.97 – 1.28
Total 3.24
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won