What we expect
Our forecast for this match. The tick on each bar is that side’s average over their last six.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches or fewer
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast. FC Cologne: last 6 matches; Schalke 04: last 5 matches.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
FC Cologne are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
FC Cologne or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
FC Cologne · last 6
Schalke 04 · last 5
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Cologne are favoured (46% win probability vs 28% for Schalke 04, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is FC Cologne 1-1 Schalke 04 (11.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Cologne 46%, the draw 25% and Schalke 04 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on FC Cologne expecting 1.70 goals and Schalke 04 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.