FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
SV Elversberg 1–2 Bayern MunichMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had SV Elversberg at 12%, draw at 16%, Bayern Munich at 73%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Bayern Munich.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Elversberg win
12%
Draw
16%
Munich win
73%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.12 – 2.86
Total 3.98
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Bayern Munich's away win is the high-confidence call at 73%, backed by a decisive 1.74 xG advantage that reflects superior shot-creation over the hosts' 1.12 expected goals."