Bawler's model rates this match: NEC Nijmegen are favoured (66% win probability vs 15% for SC Cambuur, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is SC Cambuur 1-2 NEC Nijmegen (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.64.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives SC Cambuur 15%, the draw 19% and NEC Nijmegen 66%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.15 and away expected goals 2.49.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.64. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).