SC Cambuur beat NEC Nijmegen 3–0. Bawler's model favoured NEC Nijmegen at 66% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave SC Cambuur 15%. It forecast 3.6 goals and the match produced 3. SC Cambuur had 16 shots (8 on target) to NEC Nijmegen's 10 (1), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 3.2 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
SC Cambuur beat NEC Nijmegen 3–0. Bawler's model favoured NEC Nijmegen at 66% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave SC Cambuur 15%. It forecast 3.6 goals and the match produced 3. SC Cambuur had 16 shots (8 on target) to NEC Nijmegen's 10 (1), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 3.2 to 0.9.
SC Cambuur 3–0 NEC Nijmegen, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with SC Cambuur 15%, the draw 19% and NEC Nijmegen 66%.
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 3.2–0.9, Shots 16–10, Shots on target 8–1, Shots inside box 11–5, Big chances 6–1, Corners 4–5, Saves 1–5, Fouls 16–18, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 2–4.
No. It finished 3–0, so NEC Nijmegen failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said NEC Nijmegen to win 66%, it finished SC Cambuur won (15% called); Total goals — we said 3.6, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished No.