FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Telstar 2–2 SC CambuurMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Telstar at 66%, draw at 19%, SC Cambuur at 15%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Telstar to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Telstar win
66%
Draw
19%
Actual ✓
Cambuur win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.48 – 1.13
Total 3.61
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 66%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Telstar's home advantage combines with a decisive 1.34 xG edge to make a home win the model's 66% forecast."