FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 05 September 2026
NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Feyenoord RotterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had NEC Nijmegen at 37%, draw at 24%, Feyenoord Rotterdam at 39%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Feyenoord Rotterdam.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nijmegen win
37%
Draw
24%
Rotterdam win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.67
Total 3.30
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 84%, built on Feyenoord's 1.67 xG and NEC's 1.63 creating a combined 3.30-xG affair where both sides project genuine attacking threat."