FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Bodo/Glimt 30 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Bodo/Glimt
30
Bodo/Glimt win
NEC Nijmegen
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Bodo/Glimt at 57%, draw at 21%, NEC Nijmegen at 22%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Bodo/Glimt.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Bodo/Glimt win
57%
Actual ✓
Draw
21%
Nijmegen win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.251.38
Total 3.63
Actual
30
Total 3 (-0.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost

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