FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Bodo/Glimt 3–0 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Bodo/Glimt
3–0
Bodo/Glimt win
NEC Nijmegen

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Bodo/Glimt or draw at 78%. Bawler had Bodo/Glimt at 57%, the draw at 21% and NEC Nijmegen at 22%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Bodo/Glimt win
57%
Result
Draw
21%
NEC Nijmegen win
22%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.2 – 1.4
Total 3.6
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 88%
Landed
Outside shot
NEC Nijmegen to win
Pre-match: 22%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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