Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction — Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 17:00 UK

Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 17:00 UK
31Sassuolo win26Draw43AC Milan win
Full time
1–1

How it finished

Sassuolo and AC Milan drew 1–1. Sassuolo had 11 shots (4 on target) to AC Milan's 11 (6), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.2.

SassuoloFull-time statsAC Milan
41%Possession59%
1.2Expected goals (xG)1.2
11Shots11
4Shots on target6
4Shots inside box10
2Big chances3
3Corners5
5Saves3
13Fouls11
1Offsides0
1Yellow cards4
We predicted
1–2
Likeliest score if AC Milan win (9%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (12%)
Expected goals
1.3v1.6
2.8 in total
Both teams score
57%
Leans yes
3+ goals
54%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

SassuoloSassuoloAC MilanAC Milan
1.3Goals1.6
11.5Shots13.1
6.8On target4.5
4.4Corners2.9
SassuoloSassuoloAC MilanAC Milan
0.6Goals0.5
5.4Shots5.6
3.4On target1.7
2.1Corners1.3
SassuoloSassuoloAC MilanAC Milan
0.6Goals1.1
6.1Shots7.5
3.4On target2.7
2.3Corners1.5

What we said the chances were

AC Milan to score79%
2 or more goals78%
Sassuolo to score72%
3 goals or fewer68%
Goal before half-time67%

First half — what we expected

Sassuolo
47%
to score before half-time
AC Milan
37%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

SassuoloSassuoloAC MilanAC Milan
57%5+ shots60%
31%7+ shots34%
81%2+ shots on target49%
42%4+ shots on target12%
82%1+ corners68%
33%3+ corners17%

League position

AC Milan in their league tableTop quarter

Head to head

May 2026Sassuolo 2–0 Milan
Dec 2025Milan 2–2 Sassuolo
Dec 2024Milan 6–1 Sassuolo
Apr 2024Sassuolo 3–3 Milan
Dec 2023Milan 1–0 Sassuolo
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Sassuolo form →AC Milan form →

Common questions

Who won Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

Sassuolo and AC Milan drew 1–1. Sassuolo had 11 shots (4 on target) to AC Milan's 11 (6), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.2.

What was the final score in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Sassuolo 31%, the draw 26% and AC Milan 43%.

What were the stats in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

Full-time: Possession 41%–59%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.2, Shots 11–11, Shots on target 4–6, Shots inside box 4–10, Big chances 2–3, Corners 3–5, Saves 5–3, Fouls 13–11, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 1–4.

Did both teams score in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

Yes — both Sassuolo and AC Milan scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.