FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026
AC Milan 3–0 LecceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AC Milan at 64%, draw at 22%, Lecce at 15%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward AC Milan.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Milan win
64%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Lecce win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.02 – 0.87
Total 2.89
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"AC Milan's home win carries 64% forecast backing, anchored by a 1.16 expected-goals advantage that Leão's creative wing play should help convert."