FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Como 2–0 SassuoloMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Como to win at 61%. Bawler had Como at 61%, the draw at 22% and Sassuolo at 17%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Como win
61%
Result
Draw
22%
Sassuolo win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.0
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Como to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Como's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.04 expected-goals advantage, with the model projecting 2.04 xG for the hosts against Sassuolo's 1.00."