FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026

RB Salzburg 0–4 AC MilanMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026

RB Salzburg
0–4
AC Milan win
AC Milan

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was AC Milan or draw at 65%. Bawler had RB Salzburg at 35%, the draw at 25% and AC Milan at 40%. The match finished 0–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

RB Salzburg win
35%
Draw
25%
AC Milan win
40%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 4.0
From the match itself

The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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