FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 18 October 2026
AC Milan 3–2 AtalantaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AC Milan or draw at 73%. Bawler had AC Milan at 47%, the draw at 26% and Atalanta at 27%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
AC Milan win
47%
Result
Draw
26%
Atalanta win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.