FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 16 October 2026
Frosinone 4–2 SassuoloMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 16 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Frosinone or draw at 63%. Bawler had Frosinone at 38%, the draw at 26% and Sassuolo at 37%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Frosinone win
38%
Result
Draw
26%
Sassuolo win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.