FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Salt Lake or draw at 64%. Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 39%, the draw at 24% and San Jose Earthquakes at 36%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Salt Lake win
39%
Draw
24%
Result
San Jose Earthquakes win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.