FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Salt Lake or draw at 69%. Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 31%, the draw at 24% and Real Salt Lake at 45%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting Kansas City win
31%
Draw
24%
Real Salt Lake win
45%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.8
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Real Salt Lake or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.