FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Real Salt Lake 3–0 New England RevolutionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 37%, draw at 25%, New England Revolution at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-0. The model's headline call was New England Revolution to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lake win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Revolution win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.56
Total 3.12
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 82% because both sides generate nearly identical expected goals—Salt Lake 1.56, New England 1.57—guaranteeing an open, attacking fixture."