FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 18 October 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nashville SC or draw at 64%. Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 36%, the draw at 25% and Nashville SC at 39%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Jose Earthquakes win
36%
Draw
25%
Result
Nashville SC win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.