FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Colorado Rapids or draw at 66%. Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 42%, the draw at 24% and San Jose Earthquakes at 34%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Colorado Rapids win
42%
Draw
24%
Result
San Jose Earthquakes win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.