FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 3–1 Portland TimbersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 54%, draw at 22%, Portland Timbers at 24%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward San Jose Earthquakes.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Timbers win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.17 – 1.41
Total 3.59
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 87%, driven by San Jose's 0.76 xG advantage and 2.17 expected shot quality at home."