Bawler's model rates this match: Middlesbrough are favoured (44% win probability vs 28% for Queens Park Rangers, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Queens Park Rangers 1-1 Middlesbrough (13.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.54.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Queens Park Rangers 28%, the draw 28% and Middlesbrough 44%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.09 and away expected goals 1.45.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.54. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).