Charlton Athletic 0–0 Queens Park RangersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

0–0

Draw

Queens Park Rangers

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Charlton Athletic at 36%, draw at 28%, Queens Park Rangers at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Charlton Athletic to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Athletic win

36%

Draw

28%

Actual ✓

Rangers win

36%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.26 – 1.27

Total 2.53

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-2.5 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Pre-match: 64%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Charlton's survival desperation against a QPR side with nothing left to play for tilts the model toward a home result or draw, projecting 1X at 67% despite an xG gap of just 0.10 goals."

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