FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Queens Park Rangers 0–1 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Queens Park Rangers at 28%, draw at 27%, Middlesbrough at 45%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Middlesbrough.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
28%
Draw
27%
Middlesbrough win
45%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.15 – 1.50
Total 2.65
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Both sides have mathematically clinched their final positions with four games remaining, but Middlesbrough's superior shot creation (1.43 xG vs 1.09) and 44% win probability make a draw or away victory the model's high-confidence call at 72%."