FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Queens Park Rangers 0–0 Bolton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Queens Park Rangers at 47%, draw at 27%, Bolton Wanderers at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Queens Park Rangers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
47%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Wanderers win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.10
Total 2.64
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won