FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Doncaster Rovers 1–3 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Doncaster Rovers at 30%, draw at 27%, Middlesbrough at 43%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Middlesbrough.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rovers win
30%
Draw
27%
Middlesbrough win
43%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.22 – 1.51
Total 2.73
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost