How it finished
Paris FC beat Marseille 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Marseille at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Paris FC 23%. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 5. Marseille had 14 shots (5 on target) to Paris FC's 18 (7), with 60% of the ball against 40%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 3.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Marseille vs Paris FC?
Paris FC beat Marseille 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Marseille at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Paris FC 23%. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 5. Marseille had 14 shots (5 on target) to Paris FC's 18 (7), with 60% of the ball against 40%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 3.0.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Paris FC?
Marseille 2–3 Paris FC, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Marseille 55%, the draw 23% and Paris FC 23%.
What were the stats in Marseille vs Paris FC?
Full-time: Possession 60%–40%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–3.0, Shots 14–18, Shots on target 5–7, Shots inside box 10–12, Big chances 3–4, Corners 5–4, Saves 4–3, Fouls 10–12, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 0–2.
Did both teams score in Marseille vs Paris FC?
Yes — both Marseille and Paris FC scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Marseille vs Paris FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Marseille or draw 77%, it finished Paris FC won (23% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 83%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Marseille to win 55%, it finished Missed.