FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Lorient 1–0 Paris FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lorient or draw at 70%. Bawler had Lorient at 43%, the draw at 27% and Paris FC at 30%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lorient win
43%
Result
Draw
27%
Paris FC win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lorient or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.